What do financial folly and religious frenzy have in common? This question has not been carefully explored since Charles Mackay’s spectacular 1852 study, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. But, in a recent book, William Bernstein, a well-known economic historian, neurologist, and investment manager, makes the connection even more strongly than Mackay. The title of his book, The …
Michael Lewis on the Unlikely Trio That Defeated the Pandemic
The saga of local public health officials tasked with fighting epidemic disease, and their clashes with national health authorities who didn’t care, was a perfect recipe for putting readers to sleep. But Michael Lewis made it into high drama. I couldn’t put it down. That’s about the worst opening for a book review that I can think of, but I …
Twenty Rules for Life: Morgan Housel’s Antidote to Financial Chaos
In a fascinating little book, The Psychology of Money, the investment manager Morgan Housel provides more useful self-help advice than most authors who explicitly set out to do so. My title and subtitle are a takeoff on Jordan Peterson’s wildly successful book, 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos, a mostly abstract work of philosophy that nevertheless counsels such …
Uncovering the Mystery Behind Innovation
Ever wonder why Americans enjoy a substantially higher standard of living than any other large country? According to Matt Ridley, it is because the liberal democracy we have nurtured over the last 250 years is the essential catalyst to foster innovation. Our high standard of living is the result of economic growth. The economy grows not just through putting more …
Living with Risk: The COVID-19 Iceberg
Sooner or later, the threat of the novel coronavirus epidemic will fade. The virus will not be eradicated, but we will adapt and learn how to live with the risk of SARS-nCoV-2infection. (The virus will also adapt, something very much on the minds of researchers and public health officials.) Our parents, grandparents, and ancestors lived with the risk of polio, …
Accounting For Survivorship: Data on a unique market in an unparalleled time is inherently biased
The U.S. equity market has had a phenomenal run. Since the end of 1870, a dollar invested in a capitalization-weighted market portfolio would have grown to over $18,000 by the end of May 2020 in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. That’s a compound real return of 6.8% per year. This happened despite 18 market declines of more than 20% each in real …
The Future of Liberal Democracy
Americans enjoy the economic prosperity and freedoms of its liberal democracy. But our elevated stature is threatened. As the U.S. recoils from the world, the era of U.S. dominance appears to be ending. That is an essential takeaway from Richard Haass’ modestly titled new book, The World: A Brief Introduction. If investors and their advisors, or ordinary citizens, want to …
The Election, Presidential Policy and Your Portfolio
Lido Consulting’s 15th Annual Family Office Investment Symposium November 19, 2020 Interviewed by Gina Sanchez Video of Podcast
Conversations with Frank Fabozzi
Conversations with Frank Fabozzi is a fortnightly series of interviews with leading investment thinkers and practitioners conducted by Frank J. Fabozzi, editor of The Journal of Portfolio Management and a prominent Yale professor and author. Conducted in an informal and personal manner, Frank discusses what lessons his interviewees have learned from their experiences in the financial markets and any key …
Uncovering the Mystery Behind Innovation
Ever wonder why Americans enjoy a substantially higher standard of living than any other large country? According to Matt Ridley, it is because the liberal democracy we have nurtured over the last 250 years is the essential catalyst to foster innovation. Our high standard of living is the result of economic growth. The economy grows not just through putting more …
The 19th Century Called and Wants Its Trade Policy Back
Commentators of many stripes, and politicians ranging from Donald Trump to Bernie Sanders, have derided the persistent U.S. trade deficit — particularly with China — as a waste of capital leaving our country. The view that the U.S. would benefit by correcting this imbalance is taken up in a new book, with a message that should concern all financial market …
Fewer, Richer, Greener: An Interview Hosted by Indranil Ghosh
Indranil Ghosh, the author of Powering Prosperity: A Citizen’s Guide to Shaping the 21st Century, is CEO of Tiger Hill Capital, London, UK, http://www.tigerhillcapital.com.
The Wile E. Coyote Economy
“U.S. GDP will contract 30% in second quarter,” blared an April 8 headline in Reuters Business News, apparently intended to sow as much panic as possible. In the Great Depression, real GDP shrank by about 27% from the 1929 top to the 1933 bottom, so the Reuters headline heralds what amounts to the worst news in American history, if it’s …
The Future of Liberal Democracy
Americans enjoy the economic prosperity and freedoms of its liberal democracy. But our elevated stature is threatened. As the U.S. recoils from the world, the era of U.S. dominance might be ending. That is an essential takeaway from Richard Haass’ modestly titled new book, The World: A Brief Introduction. If investors and their advisors, or ordinary citizens, want to understand …
A Misguided and Harmful View of Trade Deficits
President Trump, like many others along the political spectrum, has derided the persistent U.S. trade deficit – particularly with China – as a waste of capital leaving our country. The view that the U.S. would benefit by correcting this imbalance is taken up in a new book, with a message that should concern all financial market participants. Trade Wars are …
CATO Institute interview about Fewer, Richer, Greener with Bryan Caplan and Chelsea Follett
The world is doomed, many people argue, citing poverty, dwindling natural resources, and an allegedly unsustainable rate of population growth. They say there are just too many problems to overcome. But is that really the case? In his book Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance, Laurence Siegel shows that the world has improved―and will likely …
Roger Dooley interview about Fewer, Richer, Greener: An Optimistic Future with Larry Siegel
In this episode, Larry shares his take on abundance from a fact-based perspective and debunks some common notions about the direction in which the world is headed. Listen in to hear why he says we have every reason to be optimistic about the future—despite the doomsday stories that so often make up the news cycles—and why the coronavirus pandemic has …
Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism
Capital Allocators Podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher, Overcast, or wherever you get your podcasts (RSS link). Lavish thanks to Ted Seides for organizing and conducting this interview. Please visit his web site at https://capitalallocators.com! The interview has been edited for clarity and readability.