HOLY COW! GDP down 30%! 22 million have lost their jobs! OK, not so fast.

Laurence Articles

“U.S. GDP will contract 30% in second quarter,” blared an April 8 headline in Reuters Business News, apparently intended to sow as much panic as possible. In the Great Depression, real GDP shrank by about 27% from the 1929 top to the 1933 bottom, so the Reuters headline heralds what amounts to the worst news in American history, if it’s …

The Wisdom and Folly of Paul Krugman

Laurence Articles

Dare to disagree with Paul Krugman? If you’re prominent enough to merit his attention, he will attack your ideas and worse, label you as evil. But behind his rhetoric is an economist who is often worth listening to. In his new book, Arguing with Zombies, Paul Krugman presents his trademark blend of economic analysis and political rage. The book is …

The Novelty of the Coronavirus: What it Means for Markets

Laurence Articles

Does market history offer any parallels to today’s novel coronavirus crisis? Market action in recent weeks has been reminiscent of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009, the crash of 1987, and, for those with a long memory, the crash of 1929, which wouldn’t have been so disastrous if it had not been followed by the crashes of 1930, 1931, …