Don’t Be Fooled by the Yield Curve

Laurence Articles

For the first time in at least 40 years, there’s a fundamental economic reason that a yield curve near-inversion might not herald a recession. The U.S. Treasury yield curve is currently flatter than usual, not quite inverted but close enough to make some people nervous — since, in the past, recessions have almost always followed. I will make the case …

Don’t Be Fooled by the Yield Curve

Laurence Articles

For the first time in at least 40 years, there’s a fundamental economic reason that a yield curve near-inversion might not herald a recession. The U.S. Treasury yield curve is currently flatter than usual, not quite inverted but close enough to make some people nervous – since, in the past, recessions have almost always followed. I will make the case …

Foreword to: Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance

Laurence Articles

Why does value investing work? Why do other factor strategies work? For that matter, why does any active strategy — meaning, any strategy other than cap-weighted indexing — “work” in the sense of having a reasonable chance of beating the cap-weighted index other than by random variation? The Classical Answer The answer could arise in classical finance, or behavioral finance, …